How have tariffs affected the gold price?

The gold price has been on the rise since the beginning of the year. After briefly touching the US$3,500 per ounce level in May, it has pulled back and was trading just under US$3,400 as of Tuesday (August 26).

Gold price, January 1 to August 26, 2025.

Chart via TradingEconomics.

Although some of its increase is attributable to the points mentioned above, a significant portion is owed to a lack of information surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Initially there was no clarity on what or who was being tariffed, or when the levies would ultimately be implemented, and investors started to move into gold for greater stability and portfolio diversification.

Uncertainty about whether gold would be tariffed also had an effect, prompting traders in the US to import physical gold; this created a price differential between New York futures and the London spot price.

Concerns dissipated as the Trump administration began to nail down tariffs, but were reignited once again when US Customs and Border Patrol posted a ruling on July 31 indicating that the 39 percent tariffs against imports from Switzerland would include 1 kilogram and 100 ounce gold bars.

The news caused spot gold to spike more than 3 percent, from US$3,290 to US$3,398, and sent December futures to an all-time high of US$3,549. Meanwhile, traders halted imports of Swiss bars.

After several days of turmoil, Trump said the ruling was incorrect, and the bars would not be included in the tariff measures being applied to other Swiss imports; the gold price then retreated.

How would gold tariffs have impacted the market?

Gold functions as both a commodity and an essential part of the world’s financial system.

One kilogram and 100 ounce gold bars are used to back futures trading, and regular shipments of the metal are needed to settle contracts once they come due. A 39 percent tariff on gold from Switzerland would have been particularly disruptive, as Swiss refineries account for approximately 70 percent of the world’s gold.

According to the UN Comtrade database, in 2024, Switzerland exported more than 1,400 metric tons of unwrought gold worth more than US$106 billion, representing nearly 30 percent of the country’s total exports. Tariffs would have forced US buyers to pay a significant premium for the precious metal versus buyers in London or Shanghai.

Because gold is often used as a store of value in times of uncertainty, any kind of disruption could have had broader implications for investors looking to add stability to their portfolios.

“There are psychological nuances to gold, which is commonly viewed as a safe store of value during uncertain times and an inflation hedge. Overall, the tariff would have added another facet to the already elevated policy uncertainty.’

If the tariffs had remained in place, the US gold price would have had to rise to around US$4,700 per ounce to cover levies, while international prices would have remained closer to the US$3,500 mark.

“Tariffs have already complicated supply chains across industries, and this gold tariff would have been another example of added cost and complexity — but in this case, one with the potential to more directly impact investment activities,” Saidel-Baker went on to explain, emphasizing that US investors would have felt the pinch.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$112,039, a 1 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$111,198 and its highest price on Wednesday was US$112,555.

Bitcoin price performance, August 27, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin has come under pressure in recent days, briefly sliding below US$110,000 amid a broader crypto sector selloff and macroeconomic uncertainty. Trading at its lowest level in seven weeks, the drop has sparked debate among investors over whether the pullback presents a buying opportunity.

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$4,569.50, down by 0.5 percent over the past 24 hours to its lowest valuation of the day. Its highest was US$4,657.28.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$26.86, up by 5 percent. Its lowest valuation on Wednesday was US$203.35, and its highest valuation was US$211.54.

• XRP was trading for US$3, down by 1.6 percent in the past 24 hours, and at its lowest valuation of the day. Its highest valuation on Wednesday was US$3.04.

• SUI (Sui) was trading for US$3.47, down by 0.1 percent in the past 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3.44, and its highest level of the day was US$3.51.

• Cardano (ADA) was priced at US$0.8629, down by 1.1 percent. Its lowest valuation for Wednesday was US$0.8571, and its highest valuation was US$0.8751.

Today’s crypto news to know

ETH inflows hit US$1.3 billion following Powell’s policy hints

ETH funds have seen a massive US$1.3 billion worth of inflows over the past week as traders respond to dovish signals from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Data from SoSoValue shows ETH-based exchange-traded products have absorbed US$3.7 billion since June, compared with US$900 million in outflows from Bitcoin funds.

The surge also coincides with ETH hitting a new all-time high of US$4,955 on Sunday (August 24).

Publicly listed companies joined the rush too, adding ETH to their corporate treasuries and pushing collective holdings to nearly 5 percent of total supply. That accumulation rate is running at more than twice the fastest quarterly pace Bitcoin has ever seen, according to Standard Chartered’s (LSE:STAN) Geoffrey Kendrick via DLNews.

Trump Media, Crypto.com seal US$6.4 billion CRO treasury deal

Trump Media & Technology Group shares climbed 5 percent on Tuesday (August 26) after the company confirmed a US$6.42 billion partnership with Crypto.com to launch a CRO-focused treasury vehicle.

Dubbed the Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, the new entity will be seeded with US$1 billion in CRO and its balance will be structured as an equity line for future token purchases. As part of the agreement, the company will operate a validator node on the Cronos blockchain, staking all its tokens to earn network rewards. CRO prices soared 30 percent in a single day after the announcement, even as most of the crypto market lagged.

Still, the deal has stirred controversy among token holders, as it requires reissuing 70 billion CRO previously “burned” to reduce supply, effectively inflating circulation by more than 200 percent.

CRO jumped 40 percent on the announcement and was up by over 25 percent over 24 hours at the time of writing.

Canary Capital files for first spot ETF tracking Trump meme coin

Crypto fund manager Canary Capital has submitted paperwork to launch the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied directly to US President Donald Trump’s meme coin, $TRUMP, according to a Reuters report.

Unlike earlier applications filed under the 1940 Investment Company Act, Canary’s proposal was lodged under the 1933 Securities Act, meaning the ETF would hold $TRUMP tokens outright rather than use offshore subsidiaries or cash equivalents. The application comes despite skepticism from analysts, who note that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) typically requires a futures ETF to trade for six months before approving a spot product.

The filing follows the SEC’s February announcement that meme coins fall outside its securities jurisdiction, a decision seen as aligning with the president’s pro-crypto stance.

The $TRUMP token has lost more than 70 percent of its value since launching in January. Analysts expect the SEC to rule on several meme coin ETF applications later this year.

DeFi industry coalition advocates for developer protections

The DeFi Education Fund and a coalition of more than 110 crypto companies, investors and advocacy groups sent a letter to the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees on Wednesday, urging lawmakers to update financial rules to ensure developers and non-custodial actors are not misclassified as intermediaries. The signatories include major players in the DeFi space, such as Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), Kraken, Ripple, a16z and Uniswap Labs.

“Provide robust, nationwide protections for software developers and non-custodial service providers in market structure legislation,” the letter reads. “Without such protections, we cannot support a market structure bill.”

CFTC to integrate Nasdaq Market Surveillance platform

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced on Wednesday that it plans to integrate Nasdaq’s Market Surveillance platform, a financial surveillance tool developed by Nasdaq.

“As our markets continue to evolve and integrate new technology, it’s critical that the CFTC stays ahead of the curve,” acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham said in a press release. “Nasdaq Market Surveillance will, for the first time, provide the CFTC with automated alerts and cross-market analytics that will benefit each of the CFTC’s operating divisions and better protect our markets from fraud, manipulation and abuse.”

The CFTC asserts that using the platform will allow the agency to more efficiently analyze market trends and spot unusual trading activity, enabling staff to take quicker action against bad actors.

Trump’s copper tariffs cause price turmoil

On February 25, not long after taking office for the second time, Trump initiated an investigation into copper’s national security implications under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

Further details came months later, when the president provided an update on on July 8.

“I believe the tariff on copper, we’re going to make 50 percent,” Trump said during a White House cabinet meeting.

His comments came without an official announcement, although Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said the tariff could take effect by late July or early August. This lack of clarity caused copper prices on the Comex to surge as traders worked to bring the metal into the US ahead of potential levies.

Copper price, January 1, 2025, to August 25, 2025.

Chart via Comex Live.

Ultimately, the Trump administration said on July 30 that copper tariffs would only be applied to unrefined copper, semi-finished and copper-intensive derivatives like pipe fittings, cables, connectors and electrical components.

Refined copper will be phased in at 15 percent in 2027 and 30 percent in 2028.

The move essentially pulled the rug out from prices and caused Comex copper to plummet nearly 25 percent.

Copper tariffs could weigh on other industries

Time isn’t the only factor hindering the expansion of US copper production.

Mining is an energy-intensive business, and as demand for electricity grows, copper smelters may have to compete with other entities, similar to what happened in the steel and aluminum sector in 2019.

An April McKinsey report suggests that US power demand will grow at a CAGR of 3.5 percent, increasing from around 4,000 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025 to about 5,000 TWh in 2030 and 7,000 TWh by 2040.

The report states that this increased demand could lead to bottlenecks as providers are faced with supply chain issues and shortages of dispatchable power as new projects face delays due to labor shortages and multi-year lead times for necessary equipment. It also notes that retail electricity bills have increased 6 percent per year since 2020.

The alternative for the copper sector would be to incur further capital costs by investing in off-grid capacity — this might also be affected by tariffs, as has been seen with photovoltaic imports.

The Reuters report evaluating steel and aluminum tariffs notes that the fees were ultimately lifted in 2019 due to the high cost of electricity and limited demand. The downstream effects meant that the manufacturing, construction and transportation industries faced higher costs, reducing growth in those sectors.

Likewise, a small uptick of about 8,000 jobs in the steel and aluminum sectors was outweighed by losses in other industries as companies sought to offset higher costs through efficiency gains.

One study concluded that the tariffs resulted in the loss of 75,000 manufacturing jobs.

Although the bulk of copper tariffs will be phased in starting in 2027 and 2028, that may not provide enough lead time to build new operations and ensure they have the inputs they need to carry out business.

If applied incorrectly, tariffs could have significant consequences for industries that rely on the red metal, including tech and construction, while also impacting overall economic growth.

“Tariffs will increase the cost to US importers and consumers of copper and related products, and will put downside pressure on potential growth,” Saidel-Baker said.

What should investors know about copper tariffs?

For investors interested in copper, the long-term picture is key.

Although Trump’s scaled-back tariff announcement caused a price pullback, demand for copper is expected to significantly outweigh supply in the coming years, with experts calling for consumption from the tech industry and energy transition to add to growing requirements from urbanization in the Global South.

Whether tariffs will provide a competitive advantage for copper companies already producing and serving the US market remains to be see, but some market watchers see potential for that to happen.

For example, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded its price target for Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) to US$48 on August 11. In its reasoning, Morgan Stanley said that the market is not currently appreciating the benefits Freeport will gain from the tariffs, also noting that it will be able to raise pricing for 2026 copper rod contracts, a semi-finished product, which accounts for the majority of the company’s North American sales volume.

Robert Friedland, founder and co-chair of Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF), has come out in support of the tariffs, suggesting that they will help to rebuild the US copper industry. His reasoning is based on the national security issues inherent to having a single country dominate nearly 50 percent of the market of such a critical mineral.

Tariffs apply a new layer of uncertainty to an already challenging copper supply scenario. If tariffs are phased in gradually and industry is given the proper amount of time and investment, it could lead to a resurgence in US copper production and be a boon for those projects already in development; if not, then it could be a replay of 2018.

A policy break with the past

Canada has long lagged behind its NATO peers in terms of defense spending. According to a May report published by CIBC, Canada allocated only 1.4 percent of its GDP to defense in 2024.

Carney’s new commitments, which allocate 3.5 percent for core military spending and 1.5 percent for broader security investments like critical infrastructure, mark a stark contrast. The 2025/2026 plan from Department of National Defense and the Canadian Armed Forces underscores how this funding will be deployed, outlining a heightened focus on the Arctic and modernization of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

The plan also prioritizes safeguarding Canada’s defense assets, enhancing allied interoperability and integrating advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, nuclear deterrence and drones into training.

To address vulnerabilities such as transportation and manufacturing disruptions, Ottawa will develop a Defense Industrial Strategy aimed at securing timely access to key capabilities while reinforcing the domestic industrial base.

Ottawa is also planning a standalone Canadian Defense Procurement Agency, overseen by Stephen Fuhr, secretary of state for defense procurement, to deliver on these commitments.

For domestic contractors frustrated by bureaucracy and delays, these developments could be a game changer.

Economic impact of defense spending

The RBC and CIBC reports both indicate that defense spending has a positive economic multiplier.

RBC analysts suggest that new Canadian spending commitments that prioritize major equipment purchases could change the breakdown of the nation’s defense budget, which typically allocates 50 percent to personnel, 25 percent to operations, 20 percent to capital and 5 percent to infrastructure. As per NATO’s guidelines for members, at least 20 percent of countries’ defense spending must go toward new equipment purchases.

For its part, CIBC suggests the benefits could be “larger than perceived,” with “multiple short-and long-term positive spinoffs,” including job creation, refuting the idea that defense spending “crowds out” other economic activity.

CIBC highlights defense-related research and development (R&D) as the most powerful driver of long-term economic growth in its reports, with the potential to double the economic benefit of initial spending.

Mehrdad Hariri of the Canadian Science Policy Center has also made a case for R&D spending, arguing for at least a 20 percent allocation of the defense budget, citing dual-use technologies as a catalyst for growing the broader economy.

Dual-use capabilities can also be a bridge for investors with ESG or pension constraints that avoid pure defense stocks.

Canadian defense subsectors to watch

RBC’s report identifies key sectors to watch in Canada’s defense market. Air, land and marine systems are listed as the country’s “core domains” of defense production, supported by strong manufacturing bases in Ontario and Québec for things like combat vehicles, aircraft fabrication, naval shipbuilding and maintenance.

Carney’s pledge to prioritize domestic suppliers is a clear signal to the Canadian defense industrial base, with industry observers linking strategic priorities to concrete market opportunities. As the Globe and Mail’s Pippa Norma has reported, Ottawa’s spending surge is set to help position homegrown players like CAE (TSX:CAE,NYSE:CAE), Calian Group (TSX:CGY), Bombardier (TSX:BBD.A,TSX:BBD.B) and Seaspan to capture new contracts.

In the shipbuilding sector, Ontario’s C$215 million initiative aims to revitalize the province’s warship industry by boosting its shipbuilding capacity for the National Shipbuilding Strategy, an industry dormant since WWII.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Vic Fedeli, the province’s minister of economic development, job creation and trade, recently met with senior executives of Algoma Steel Group (TSX:ASTL,NASDAQ:ASTL) to discuss the company supplying steel for the defense industry, potentially securing multibillion-dollar contracts for Canadian navy corvettes designed by Italy’s Fincantieri (BIT:FCT), one of the world’s leading shipbuilders.

“We let them know that if they try to pivot…we would be there to help them,” Fedeli told the Globe and Mail.

Another Canadian firm, Davie Shipbuilding, plans to leverage its recent acquisition of two Texas shipyards to develop local shipbuilding capacity to secure a contract to build icebreakers for the US.

The federal government is also actively pursuing partnerships. The EU defense pact, which Canada signed in June, opens a new market beyond the established US-integrated supply chains. As a recent example, Canadian armored-vehicle maker Roshel has partnered with Swedish steel producer Swebor to manufacture ballistic-grade steel in Canada.

“This project goes beyond steel — it is about establishing industrial sovereignty. By bringing ballistic steel production to Canada, we are reducing a critical dependency, protecting our supply chain, and laying the groundwork for long-term resilience in the defense and manufacturing sectors,’ said Roshel CEO Roman Shimonov in a press release.

This news comes as Canada reviews the purchase of 88 F-35 Lightning fighter jets from US defense contractor Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT). Carney ordered the review in March, saying Canada is overreliant on the US defense industry.

While no final decision has been made, the most likely alternative to the F-35 would be the Saab Gripen, a Swedish-made fighter jet. Mélanie Joly, Canada’s minister of innovation, science and industry, visited Saab facilities during a mid-August trip to Sweden and Finland to discuss industrial defense ties between Europe and Canada, but said it was a “normal” part of her job and that she will also meet with US executives from Lockheed Martin.

Risks and realities

While the investment potential of Canada’s defense sector is clear, execution challenges remain. Coverage from the Globe and Mail’s Norma highlights that sentiment among executives is both wary and optimistic.

Canada’s procurement system has a long history of delays and cost overruns, and scaling up production capacity, especially outside US-integrated supply chains, will take time.

Smaller firms warn that slow procurement cycles can threaten their survival, while larger players see clear opportunities in space systems, advanced training and construction for aircraft and naval vessels.

However, RBC analysts warn that funding via higher taxes or debt could dilute the economic benefit, particularly if spending displaces other high-multiplier programs.

Investor takeaway

The ‘Buy Canadian’ directive could offer a rare moment for investors to position themselves early in a sector poised to be reshaped by unprecedented spending and technological advancement.

The sheer scale of the commitment signals a transformative period.

If effectively implemented, Carney’s plan could ignite a multi-decade boom in Canada’s defense sector, expanding opportunities well beyond traditional defense stocks and into aerospace, cybersecurity and dual-use technologies.

However, as Michael M. Smith, COO at Canadian venture capital firm ONE9, wrote for the Windsor Star:

“A new mandate alone will not transform the system if those executing it remain tethered to the same institutional caution. True reform will require individuals willing to challenge orthodoxy even when it carries political cost, those who will reject legacy processes and bloated vendor ecosystems in favour of speed, survivability, and sovereign capability.”

While the pathway may present hurdles, the foundational policy and capital are in place for a dynamic new era in Canadian defense.

Germany agreement

Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson signed the minerals agreement with his German counterpart in Berlin.

While not legally binding, the deal outlines plans to coordinate investment and appoint envoys to deepen cooperation in sectors ranging from electric vehicles to aerospace and defence.

“So there is a lot happening,” Carney added. “The number one focus of this government is to build that infrastructure, and particularly infrastructure that helps us deepen our partnership with our European partners, and particularly Germany.”

Germany is Canada’s largest European trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching US$30.5 billion last year. For Berlin, diversifying supplies of energy and industrial inputs remains a priority after the country cut reliance on Russian natural gas following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ottawa and Berlin have previously signed memorandums of understanding on hydrogen and critical minerals, including 2022 agreements with Volkswagen (OTC Pink:VLKAF,FWB:VOW) and Mercedes-Benz Group (OTC Pink:MBGAF,ETR:MBG) to secure supplies of nickel, cobalt and lithium for electric vehicle batteries.

Canada’s economy has long depended on the US market, and the intensifying trade dispute with Washington has accelerated Ottawa’s drive to find new outlets.

The Prime Minister has framed Europe as Canada’s most reliable alternative, calling the country “the most European of non-European nations.”

His current trip marks his fourth visit to the continent since taking office in March, with stops in Ukraine, Poland, Germany and Latvia.

For Churchill, a new port would be a welcome transformation.

The northern Manitoba town’s existing facilities have largely been used for grain exports. Expanding its capacity to handle liquefied natural gas and minerals could give Canada another strategic outlet to Atlantic markets, bypassing congested southern corridors and reducing dependence on US ports.

US adds minerals to list

While Canada seeks to deepen European ties, Washington is reinforcing its own approach.

On Monday (August 25), the US Department of the Interior released a draft 2025 list of 54 critical minerals deemed vital to the economy and national security.

For the first time, copper, silver and potash were included, alongside silicon, rhenium and lead.

“President Trump has made clear that strengthening America’s economic and national security means securing the resources that fuel our way of life,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a recent press release.

“This draft list of critical minerals provides a clear, science-based roadmap to reduce our dependence on foreign adversaries, expand domestic production and unleash American innovation.”

The list, updated every three years under the Energy Act of 2020, guides federal investment, permitting, and recycling strategies. It originated with a 2017 executive order that directed agencies to assess US vulnerabilities in mineral supply chains.

The US Geological Survey tested more than 1,200 disruption scenarios for 84 minerals across 402 industries. The analysis flagged rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium and lutetium among the commodities posing the highest potential risks.